After a day off at Wimbledon, the action goes on with round-of-16 matches on Manic Monday. Week 1 was full of surprises, so six unseeded ladies and six unseeded gentlemen made it to the fourth round.
The Big 3 combined for three lost sets in Week 1 whereas Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer dropped a set each. Djokovic and Nadal should dominate their rivals on Monday, but Federer could have some problems.
Novak meets the World No. 66 Ugo Humbert as a 1.20 fave to win in straight sets. Humbert eliminated Felix Auger-Aliassime in the previous round, but the Frenchman will have a mountain to climb against the World No. 1. Novak’s game is just too god for Humbert at the highest level.
The similar case is with Rafael Nadal who’s a 1.38 favorite to beat Joao Sousa in straight sets. Sousa has a really strong forehand, but everything else is pretty much way bellow Nadal’s game.
On the other hand, Roger Federer takes on Matteo Berrettini as a 1.10 fave with the odds at 1.85 to win in straight sets. Berrettini barely defeated Diego Schwartzman is the previous round, but the 17th-seeded Italian could make some damage.
Berrettini possesses powerful 1st serve and needs to avoid any drops in his performance to even win a set. The price is tempting at 1.85, but it’s still a long shot.
Elsewhere, there are five players listed as strong favorites to win their matches. The 21st seed David Goffin plays Fernando Verdasco which seems like a tight match. Verdasco is playing well on the grass court. He already made it to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2013, and I think he’ll win a set against Goffin at 1.40 odds.
Verdasco and Goffin split their six H2H duels, and this will be the first clash on the grass court. As well as the bookies, I expect to see both players winning a set at 1.55.
The 15th seed Milos Raonic is a 1.17 fave against the 26th-seeded Guido Pella who upset the reigning vice-champ Kevin Anderson in straight sets in the previous round. Pella is a typical baseliner and will have a tall task to upset another former Wimbledon finalist.
I would avoid Raonic and Pella, while Sam Querrey seems like a nice pick at 1.45 to cover a 1.5-set handicap against his compatriot Tennys Sandgren. Querrey was at the highest level last week, dominating all his three rivals including the World No. 4 Dominic Thiem in the opener.
Sandgren defeated Gilles Simon and Fabio Fognini in the previous two rounds. However, Querrey is a different opponent who loves to play on grass and has a really strong serve.
The 23rd seed Roberto Bautista Agut meets the 28th seed Benoit Paire, and Roberto won all his eight meetings with Benoit on the ATP Tour. In six of those eight matches, the Spaniard didn’t drop a set. On the other hand, Roberto overcame Paire at Wimbledon four years ago after dropping the first two sets.
Benoit Paire is one of the weirdest players on the tour, and his game could collapse in a minute, while Bautista Agut is one of those guys who are really tough to beat and demands extra effort. Paire is playing well this season and could be the first player at Wimbledon this year to win a set against Bautista Agut.
Kei Nishikori had an easy job in Week 1, and the 8th seed is a massive 1.10 favorite to beat the World No. 58 Mikhail Kukushkin. This is another match for those who like betting trends. Nishikori won all his nine encounters with Kukushkin including a straight-set victory at Wimbledon seven years ago.
Likewise, Kukushkin couldn’t win a set in his previous six meetings with Nishikori. Mikhail made a couple of upsets in Week 1, beating John Isner in five sets and Jan-Lennard Struff in four sets. If you like to go with trends, Nishikori is available at 1.80 odds, while the price on Kukushkin to win a set is 1.90.