Brazil vs Paraguay Betting Preview and Pick

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Brazil ended the group stage in style with a comfortable 5-0 win over Peru, and Seleção deservedly topped their group above Venezuela and Peru. Paraguay, on the other hand, were quite lucky to even progress to the knockout phase thanks to a draw between Ecuador and Japan. That game finished 1-1, and Los Guaraníes got a chance to face the hosts here, but it would be a miracle if they manage to advance to the semi-finals.

Brazil vs Paraguay

•    Copa America

•    Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Brazil

•    Friday 28 June

•    02:30 CET

Brazil Team News and Latest Form

Top-ranked team at this Copa America, Brazil (FIFA rank: #3), scored a tournament-high eight goals in the group stage. Even more impressively, the hosts kept the clean sheet in all three games and are now without a loss in 13 matches overall (W11, D2) allowing only twice in that span.

Ten of Brazil’s 11 wins in that sequence came without reply from the rivals, and it has been almost two years since they last allowed a goal to a fellow CONMEBOL team (Colombia). In total, Brazil haven’t conceded a goal in their previous 754 minutes of play vs CONMEBOL rivals.

Phillipe Coutinho was involved in three of his team’s eight goals at Copa America (two goals, one assist). Four of Brazil’s last five victories have seen them score exactly three times in one half.

Paraguay Team News and Latest Form

The odds are against Los Guaraníes, particularly with Paraguay winning only one of their previous 11 games (W1, D4, L6) doing so against Guatemala (FIFA rank: #145). Furthermore, Paraguay have lost six of their last seven matches against higher-ranked teams since (D1, L6).

However, Paraguay have eliminated Brazil on penalties in the quarter-finals in two of the last three Copa America tournaments. In relation to this, four of Paraguay’s previous five H2H duels with Brazil have been tied in regulation.

Newcastle star Miguel Almiron created two of Paraguay’s three Copa America goals, although he has not hit the net himself since last November. Both teams have scored in six of Paraguay’s last nine games in all competitions.

Brazil vs Paraguay Head to Head

Brazil and Paraguay faced on 47 occasions since 1921 and Brazil leads in all-time H2H encounters with 23 wins; Paraguay have 12 while 12 games ended as a draw. In the latest clash at Copa America, Los Guaraníes defeated Brazil on penalties in the quarter-finals in 2015. Brazil coach Tite won his only previous duel against Paraguay 3-0, with Seleção scoring in both halves.

Brazil vs Paraguay Betting Tip

Brazil are strong favorites at 1.16 (-600) odds, and we’re not going to bet on these miserable odds. Betting on Seleção on Asian Handicap is another thing, though, and given how they played in their last group match and Paraguay’s weak performance against Colombia, Brazil could easily score minimum two or three goals here. We’re backing Brazil to cover the -2 spread at 2.00 (+100), and in case they win by two-goal margin, you’ll get your stake back.

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